‘It will absolutely come down to California’: Control of the House hinges on 9 state races
By the end of this week, it will be game over for the Congressional map, and even for the Senate, once it is known who wins in each of the nine Southern California congressional districts held by Republicans.
If the result is a Democratic victory, it could be a major factor in the midterm elections, which are now just 11 days away.
Republicans have dominated the South, but control of the House would be critical to keeping House Republicans in check in the near future.
Vulnerable incumbents from both parties in the nine seats, as well as many other House members, are waiting to see which way the tide of the midterms will turn, if the GOP flips a seat or two.
“With Democrats making gains, and a Senate majority up for grabs, it’s imperative that Republicans hold the House,” said Eric Massa, a prominent Republican strategist in Southern California.
Vermont, Alaska and New Mexico have gained seats from the GOP this election cycle. If Republicans flip those seats, it could be seen as a key turning point in the party’s effort to take back the House.
Republicans have controlled the House for eight of the past 10 elections, thanks in large part to a political formula that favors Republicans in heavily Republican districts and seats that are held by GOP moderates.
In the first Tuesday since the midterm election, Democrats are making strong inroads in the nine competitive Republican districts.
In the northern Virginia district now held by Republican Rep. Scott Rigell, Hillary Clinton has pulled ahead with 30 percent of the vote compared to Rigell’s 23 percent.
In southern California, Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, holds an extremely safe seat, even with an increased share of the vote this election.
“He’s going to get re-elected,” said Jeff Cramer, a Republican strategist who has worked in and around Southern California and is a former California secretary of state.
“It will absolutely come down to California, because California will control the outcome of every election that’s coming out of
