California should expect a ‘fourth dry year’ as drought persists in northern and southern parts of the state This map shows the extent of the current drought conditions in California. (California Department of Water Resources)
California’s climate has been getting worse lately, and we’re already in the fourth year of a drought that has gripped the state for most of 2016. And it’s been going on for years, which leaves us with one of two possible outcomes in the coming months: either the water restrictions will be lifted sooner than we thought, or they’ll be rolled into some kind of disaster.
There’s not much at stake right now, but it’s not a sure thing. There are just two options. The first is that the state’s water restrictions will get pushed into December 2017, as predicted. The second is that conditions will get so bad in 2018 that some will begin considering a fifth year of water rationing, which is what caused the first year of water rationing to be extended in 2014 and would be the case again in December 2017.
There are plenty of reasons why this could happen. But one of the biggest has to do with the long-term impacts of climate change. The state doesn’t control whether this will happen, but it does control how it will respond. There’s no point in keeping things secret — if we wait too long and we still need to ration water, we can always announce that a drought exists and why.
If the state is forced into an October 2018 cutoff, the situation is relatively straightforward. It’s always possible that some kind of climate change event could occur during those months that would result in severe drought conditions. In this case, the state would have a little more time to prepare for it.
We’re already in the fourth year of a drought that has gripped the state for most of 2016, with no end in sight. There’s not much at stake right now, but it’s not a sure thing. There are just two options. The first is that the state’s water restrictions will get pushed into December 2017, as predicted. The second is that conditions will get so bad in 2018 that some will begin considering a fifth year of water rationing, which is what
